{"id":182,"date":"2010-10-30T18:38:52","date_gmt":"2010-10-31T02:38:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tbc.chhongbi.org\/?p=182"},"modified":"2016-02-29T23:49:04","modified_gmt":"2016-03-01T07:49:04","slug":"%e8%84%ab%e9%bb%a8%e8%83%8c%e4%bf%a1%e7%ab%b6%e9%81%b8-%e6%b5%ae%e5%a3%ab%e5%be%b7-%e5%93%88%e5%a7%86%e9%9b%b7%e7%89%b9%ef%bc%9f-faust-or-hamlet-%e6%9c%89%e5%8b%9d%e6%ba%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tbc.chhongbi.org\/?p=182","title":{"rendered":"\u812b\u9ee8\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078&#8211;\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7? \u54c8\u59c6\u96f7\u7279\uff1f (Faust or Hamlet?)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u812b\u9ee8\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078&#8211;\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7? \u54c8\u59c6\u96f7\u7279\uff1f (Faust or Hamlet?)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u6709\u52dd\u6eaa<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">10\/30\/2010<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>==========<\/p>\n<p>Oliver Stone \u7de8\u5c0e\u7684\u201dWall Street\u201d\uff0c\u7968\u623f\u96d6\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b97\u5091\u51fa\u7684\u5f71\u7247\u3002\u62ff\u5230\u91d1\u50cf\u734e\u7684Michael Douglas \u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a\u201dGreed, for lack of a better word, is good.\u201d \u537b\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u4e2d\u4e00\u518d\u88ab\u5a92\u9ad4\u5f15\u7528\uff0c \u9053\u76e1 Main Street (\u4e00\u822c\u6c11\u773e) \u5c0d Wall Street (\u8ca1\u7d93\u9280\u884c\u696d) \u7684\u53cd\u611f\uff0cStone \u5fcd\u4e0d\u4f4f\u518d\u62cd\u7e8c\u96c6\uff0c\u65bc\u4e5d\u6708\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6620\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u5c0d\u65bc\u8ca1\u5bcc\u3001\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a\uff0c\u6df1\u690d\u4eba\u6027\u7684\u5f31\u9ede\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u60b2\u559c\u5287\u5c0d\u89c0\u773e\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u53e4\u5178\u6a02\u7a0d\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u80fd\u54fc\u6b4c\u5287\u5361\u9580\u6216\u8336\u82b1\u5973\u7684\u540d\u66f2\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u5fc5\u719f\u6089\u6b4c\u5287\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7(Faust) \u7684\u66f2\u8abf\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u7d10\u7d04\u6b4c\u5287\u9662 Metropolitan Opera 1883 \u5e74\u5275\u7acb\u958b\u5e55\u7684\u6b4c\u5287\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u540d\u5217\u8a72\u9662\u5341\u5927\u6700\u53d7\u559c\u611b\u7684\u540d\u5287\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4f5c\u66f2\u5bb6\u53e4\u8afe (Charles Gounod)\uff0c\u53d6\u6750\u81ea\u5fb7\u570b\u5927\u6587\u8c6a\u6b4c\u5fb7(Johann W. von Goethe)\u7684\u6232\u5287\u201c\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7\uff02 (Faust\uff0e Der Tragoedie erster Teil)\u3002\u4e3b\u89d2\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7\u662f\u5fb7\u570b\u50b3\u8aaa\u4e2d\u7684\u53e4\u4ee3\u5b78\u8005\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u63db\u53d6\u9ad8\u4e0d\u53ef\u53ca\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u865b\u69ae(\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u9ed1\u6697\u6642\u4ee3\uff0f\u4e2d\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u77e5\u8b58\u5c31\u662f\u6b0a\u5a01\u548c\u6b0a\u529b)\uff0c\u8207\u9b54\u9b3cMephistopheles\u8a02\u7d04\uff0c\u51fa\u8ce3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9748\u9b42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53f0\u7063\u5357\u65b9\u653f\u58c7\u7248\u7684power greed \u6232\u5287\uff0c\u6bd4\u201cWall Street\u201d \u7684\u7e8c\u96c6\u66f4\u65e9\u4e0a\u6f14\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u51d6\u5099\u5357\u3001\u9ad8\u5169\u76f4\u8f44\u5e02\u521d\u9078\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6642\uff0c\u5167\u90e8\u722d\u57f7\u5df2\u9b27\u5230\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0a\u3002\u5f8c\u7d93\u5357\u90e8\u672c\u571f\u793e\u5718\u51fa\u9762\u5354\u8abf\uff0c\u5169\u90fd\u6240\u6709\u521d\u9078\u4eba\u90fd\u7c3d\u4e86\u9075\u5f9e\u9ee8\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3001\u9858\u8ced\u670d\u8f38\u7684\u627f\u8afe\u66f8\uff0c\u201c\u672a\u52dd\u8005\u61c9\u7121\u689d\u4ef6\u5354\u52a9\u52dd\u8005\u7af6\u9078\u201d\u3002\u521d\u9078\u65e5\u4e5f\u56e0\u5354\u8abf\u800c\u5ef6\u671f\u3002\u4e94\u6708\u521d\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u51fa\u7210\u6642\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u53ca\u7279\u7d04\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u8a00\u7336\u5728\u8033\uff0c\u201c\u672a\u52dd\u201d\u7684\u694a\u79cb\u8208\u53ca\u8a31\u6dfb\u8ca1\u9663\u71df\uff0c\u7adf\u653e\u8a00\u5c07\u9055\u7d00\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078\u3002\u5e7e\u7d93\u9ee8\u5167\u5916\u9ad8\u5c64\u3001\u5927\u8001\u5354\u8abf\uff0c\u5169\u71df\u614b\u5ea6\u5f37\u786c\u4e0d\u8b93\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u9032\u9ee82008\u6158\u6557\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e7e\u6b21\u8271\u82e6\u7684\u88dc\u9078\uff0c\u672a\u898b\u9019\u7a2e\u812b\u9ee8\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002 \u800c\u4eca\u60c5\u52e2\u9010\u6f38\u8f49\u6eab\uff0c\u7adf\u5728\u7da0\u71df\u9435\u7968\u5340\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8b93\u4e00\u822c\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7cfb\u5916\u7684\u9078\u6c11\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u6b0a\u529b\u8caa\u5a6a\u6240\u9a45\u4f7f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4e94\u90fd\u7af6\u9078\u4eba\u4e5d\u6708\u767b\u8a18\u622a\u6b62\u6642\uff0c\u8a31\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u8af8\u7da0\u71df\u7121\u9650\u7126\u616e\u5f8c\uff0c\u7e3d\u7b97\u662f\u660e\u667a\u7684\u524e\u8eca\u3002 \u694a\u5247\u5148\u5728\u516b\u6708\u4e2d\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u4f48\u812b\u9ee8\u53c3\u9078\u3002\u800c\u4ed6\u5c0dECFA\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u53ca\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u7b49\uff0c\u77ac\u606f\u842c\u8b8a\uff0c\u6628\u662f\u4eca\u975e\uff0c\u9023\u9577\u671f\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u5357\u90e8\u672c\u571f\u793e\u5718\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u5f0f\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>===========<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd1\u4ee3\u6bd4\u8f03\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5169\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>(1) <\/strong><strong>Theodore Roosevelt <\/strong><strong>\u7e3d\u7d71<\/strong><strong>(1912)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong> &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u51fa\u8eab\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c1901\uff0d1909\u3002 (\u8a3b\uff1a\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u6642\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71Franklin Roosevelt\uff0c1933\uff0d1945\uff0c\u662f\u9060\u89aa\uff0d5<sup>th<\/sup> cousin\uff0c\u5c6c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u3002) \u56e0\u4ed6\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u4fc2\u4ee5\u526f\u7e3d\u7d71\u8eab\u4efd\u7e7c\u627f\u88ab\u6697\u6bba\u7684President McKinley\uff0c\u539f\u53ef\u65bc1908\u518d\u53c3\u9078\uff0c\u4e26\u6975\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u9ad8\u4eba\u6c23\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4ed6\u537b\u6307\u5b9aWilliam Taft\u70ba\u4ed6Progressive Movement\u7684\u7e7c\u627f\u4eba\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7af6\u9078\u4e26\u7e7c\u4efb\u3002\u56db\u5e74\u5f8cRoosevelt\u4e0d\u6eff\u610f Taft\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6771\u5c71\u518d\u8d77\u3002\u57281912\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5167\u521d\u9078\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e2d\u637212\u5ddePreferential Primaries\u4e2d\u76849\u5dde\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u5eff\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u521d\u9078\u5236\u5ea6\u4ecd\u5728\u6539\u9032\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u5dde\u7684\u9ee8\u4e2d\u592e\u6bd4\u57fa\u5c64\u9078\u6c11\u66f4\u80fd\u5de6\u53f3\u9078\u5c40\u3002\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7684\u5171\u548c\u9ee8convention \u958b\u59cb\u6642\uff0cTaft \u7576\u6b0a\u6d3e\u986f\u4f54\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u7121\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u52aa\u529b\u5169\u9031\u5f8c\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u52dd\u5229\uff0c\u5c31\u5728convention\u7968\u6c7a\u524d\uff0c\u7387\u9818\u652f\u6301\u8005\u96e2\u958bconvention\uff0c \u5ba3\u4f48\u5c07\u53e6\u7d44\u65b0\u9ee8\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u4ee3\u8868\u65b0\u9ee8Progressive Party\u53d6\u5f9727%\u9078\u7968\uff0c \u7a0d\u591a\u65bcTaft \u768423%\uff0c \u4f46\u8f38\u7d66\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8Woodrow Wilson \u768442%\u3002 (\u8a3b\uff1a\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u4e5f\u906d\u523a\u6bba\u4e2d\u5f48\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e09\u9031\u56e0\u50b7\u7121\u6cd5\u65c5\u884c\u7af6\u9078\u3002)<\/p>\n<p><strong>(2) <\/strong><strong>Joseph Lieberman <\/strong><strong>\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1<\/strong><strong>(2006)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>Lieberman\u662f\u5eb7\u5dde(Connecticut)\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1(1988-2006)\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u9ee8\u4e2d\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u6703\u652f\u6301\u5e03\u5e0c\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u653f\u7b56\u30022006 \u7af6\u9078\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u9ee8\u5167\u521d\u9078\u958b\u59cb\u6642\uff0c\u6c11\u8abf\u9818\u514846%\uff0e\u6311\u6230\u8005Ned Lamont\u6975\u529b\u653b\u64ca\u4ed6\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fe0\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u6273\u5e73\uff0e\u4f46Lieberman 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\u6700\u5f8c\u89e3\u5957\u7684\uff0c\u7adf\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u570b\u6703\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u516d\u6708\u8b70\u6c7a\u53f0\u5357\u7e23\u3001\u5e02\u5408\u4f75\u70ba\u5927\u53f0\u5357\u76f4\u8f44\u5e02\uff0c\u5408\u9078\u4e00\u5e02\u9577\u3002\u9673\u5510\u5c71\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u6b64\u6536\u5834\u3002\u5408\u4f75\u5f8c\u7684\u5927\u53f0\u5357\u5e02\uff0c\u537b\u518d\u5192\u51fa\u8a31\u6dfb\u8ca1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\uff0c\u5357\u3001\u9ad8\u5169\u5730\u76f8\u7e7c\u767c\u751f\u4e09\u8d77\u521d\u9078\u5236\u5ea6\u56b4\u91cd\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u5982\u4ee5\u9019\u7a2e\u983b\u7387\u548c\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7e7c\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u53ea\u80fd\u9000\u5316\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u53f0\u806f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u4f86<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\uff1d\uff1d\uff1d\uff1d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u7684\u518d\u8d77\u4ee5\u53ca\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u8208\u8870\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u52302012\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u8b8a?\u5f88\u591a\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8457\u773c\u65bc\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u65b0\u9886\u5c0e\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8207\u7279\u8cea\u3001\u53ca\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c38\u4e0d\u9000\u5931\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\u610f\u5716\u6d88\u9577\uff1b\u66f4\u591a\u8a55\u8ad6\u5f15\u7528\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7da0\u71df\u7684\u6c11\u8abf(\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u3001\u7e23\u5e02\u57f7\u653f\u3001\u7d71\u7368\u610f\u5411\u7b49)\u3002\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7e23\u5e02\u57f7\u653f\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u5c31\u5f88\u721b\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5929\u4e0b\u96dc\u8a8c\u6c11\u8abf\uff0c\u624d\u7fa3\u540a\u8eca\u5c3e?\u7b46\u8005\u5c07\u8a66\u5f9e\u66f4\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5c64\u6b21\uff0c\u4f86\u63a2\u8a0e\u53f0\u7063\u8fd1\u5169\u5e74\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>(1) <\/strong><strong>\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387<\/strong> <strong>\u53ca<\/strong> <strong>Anti-Incumbent Sentiment<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>\u57282008 \u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u524d\uff0c\u5c31\u5148\u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u5f8c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u5c0d\u7576\u6b0a\u8005(\u6307\u57f7\u653f\u8005\u6216\u8b70\u6703\u591a\u6578\u9ee8)\u9023\u4efb\u300d (Anti-Incumbent Voting Pattern) \u7684\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002\u9996\u5169\u6b21\u767c\u751f\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5148\u9032\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u66f4\u6ce2\u53ca\u65e5\u6f38\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u3002\u4f7f\u53f0\u7063\u8ddf\u9019\u4e16\u754c\u8da8\u52e2\u63a5\u8ecc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5f9e\u6b50\u6d32\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u4e00\u76f4\u5230\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e00\u689d\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff1a\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u30021980\uff0d2000\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc1%\uff0d3%\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c \u8fd1\u5e74\u5247\u500d\u589e\u81f33.9%\uff0d6%\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u5347\u964d\u6c88\u6d6e\uff0c\u6cd5\u5b9a\u8ca7\u6236\u6578\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c38\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u56de3%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u201c\u53f0\u7063\u63a5\u55ae\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u751f\u7522\u201d\u3001\u201c\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5927\u201d\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5df2\u6210\u5bb6\u55a9\u6236\u66c9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e2d\u7522\u3001\u7121\u7522\u968e\u5c64\uff0c\u8ddf\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u611f\u89ba\u5230\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u514d\u65bc\u201c\u5931\u696d\u3001\u65b0\u8ca7\u3001\u9577\u8ca7\u3001\u6c38\u8ca7\u201d\u7684\u6050\u61fc\u3002(\u4eca\u5e742\u670821\u65e5\u7ebd\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u201c\u65b0\u8ca7\u7cfb\u5217\u201d\u6709\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u201cThe New Poor\uff1aMillions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs\u201d\u3002\u300e\u65b0\u8ca7\u968e\u5c64\uff1a\u6578\u767e\u842c\u5931\u696d\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u6578\u5e74\u5167\u5f88\u96e3\u518d\u627e\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\u300f\u3002\u8a72\u6587\u5728\u6b21\u65e5\u8df3\u5c45\u6700\u591a\u50b3\u95b1\u201cmost emailed\u201d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d)\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u516b\u516b\u6c34\u707d\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u8b8a\u6210\u5f37\u529b\u7684\u5c0e\u706b\u7dda\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u76f8\u7576\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u8cea\u7591\u3001\u53cd\u7701\u50b3\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u884c\u70ba\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u8d95\u4e0a\u7f8e\u3001\u97d3\u3001\u65e5\u7684anti-incumbent \u65b0\u5f62\u614b\u30022009\u5e74\u521d\uff0c7\u540d\u7acb\u59d4\u88dc\u9078\uff0c\u5176\u7e3d\u6295\u7968\u6578\u3001\u5730\u5340\u53ca\u85cd\u7da0\u5206\u4f48\u3001\u65cf\u7fa3\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5f37\u529b\u9a57\u8a3c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>(2) <\/strong><strong>\u570b\u5bb6\u4e3b\u6b0a\u8150\u8755\u7684\u6050\u61fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>2005 \u9023\u3001\u5b8b\u806f\u5171\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u610f\uff0e\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u201c\u5931\u610f\u201d\u5c07\u9818\u6216\u653f\u5ba2\uff0c\u5f15\u6575\u71df\u5165\u95dc\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7576\u958b\u8def\u5148\u92d2\uff0c\u5f80\u4f8b\u4e0d\u52dd\u679a\u8209\uff0e\u4ed6\u5011\u986f\u7136\u7121\u80fd\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u4e3b\u6b0a\u6216\u9818\u571f\u9020\u6210\u540c\u7b49\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0e \u53ef\u662f\u6c11\u773e\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u5f97\u610f\u201d\u7684\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d(\u4ee5\u6700\u9ad8\u7968\u7d00\u9304\u7576\u9078\uff0c\u53c8\u5b8c\u5168\u63a7\u5236\u570b\u6703)\uff0c\u7adf\u6bd4\u9023\u6230\u66f4\u50be\u4e2d\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u89e3\u56b4\u5f8c\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u6b63\u5f0f\u5927\u91cf\u5f15\u5c0e\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5e79\u3001\u9ad8\u5b98\u3001\u5546\u4eba\u3001\u5b78\u751f\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u5165\u5883\uff0c\u66f4\u5728\u689d\u7d04\u53ca\u6cd5\u5236\u5167\u5916\uff0c\u8b93\u6b65\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u653f\u3001\u7d93\u3001\u5a92\u3001\u5b78\u3001\u6587\u7b49\u9818\u57df\u76f4\u5165\u7d71\u6230\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u99ac\u653f\u5e9c\u9ad4\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\u54e1\uff0c\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u96b1\u85cf\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u95dc\u53f0\u7063\u4e3b\u6b0a\u7684\u8c61\u5fb5\u3002\u89aa\u4e2d\u5a92\u9ad4\u53c8\u63a9\u4e0d\u4f4f\u5167\u5fc3\u7684\u559c\u6085\u9a55\u50b2\uff0c\u983b\u5831\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u5c0d\u9130\u570b\u7684\u5f37\u52e2\u6253\u58d3\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002 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Maslow\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u6839\u672c\u8981\u4ef6(\u5982\u6c34\u3001\u7a7a\u6c23\u3001\u98df\u7269\u3001\u7761\u7720)\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u9700\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u8ca1\u7522\u3001\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u3001\u8cc7\u6e90\u7b49\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\u602a\u4e0d\u5f97\u6709\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u611f\u5230\uff0c\u5148\u6c11\u8f9b\u82e6\u958b\u62d3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u5df2\u975e\u5b89\u5c45\u4e4b\u90f7\u3002\u84cb\u6d1b\u666e(Gallup poll)\u65bc\u516b\u6708\u767c\u8868\u5168\u7403148\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u610f\u5411\u6c11\u8abf\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u7684\u6de8\u79fb\u51fa\u610f\u5411\u6307\u6578(\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u6307\u6578)\u9ad8\u5c45\u7b2c96\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u9060\u843d\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6bd4Iraq\u3001Paraguay\u3001Chad\u3001Ecuador\u3001Togo\u3001Mali \u7b49\u66f4\u5dee\uff0c\u53ef\u7b97\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u65b0Banana Republic ? \u5f88\u591a\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u54c8\u59c6\u96f7\u7279\u5287\u4e2d\u7684\u838e\u7fc1\u540d\u53e5\uff1a\u201cTo be or not to be?\u201d (\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u751f\u5b58\u5728\u53f0\u7063\uff1f)<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u524d\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5f8c\u534a\u671f\uff0c\u4e0d\u5206\u7537\u5973\u8001\u5e7c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u8b1b\u82f1\u3001\u6cd5\u3001\u5fb7\u3001\u897f\u8a9e\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u4e0d\u5e72\u6d89\u3001\u4e0d\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u5c31\u6562\u80cc\u4e00\u5c0f\u7bb1\u6210\u8863\u3001\u73e0\u5bf6\u3001\u624b\u5de5\u85dd\u54c1\u3001\u96fb\u6a5f\u96f6\u4ef6\u7b49\u7684\u6a23\u54c1\uff0c\u61f7\u8457\u627f\u50b3\u81ea\u5148\u6c11\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u98c4\u6d0b\u6e21\u6d77\uff0c\u6a6b\u6383\u7f8e\u3001\u6b50\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3002\u5176\u81ea\u4fe1\u548c\u6210\u5c31\u611f\uff0c\u53ef\u5f15\u7528\u7f8e\u570b\u5e74\u9752\u904b\u52d5\u9078\u624b\u6700\u611b\u7684\u4e00\u5b57\uff1a\u201c\uff29\uff2e\uff36\uff29\uff2e\uff23\uff29\uff22\uff2c\uff25\u201d\u3002\u66fe\u5e7e\u4f55\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5354\u52a9\u5275\u7acb\u7684\u9738\u696d\u7d1b\u7d1b\u897f\u9032\uff0c\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e2f\u8d70\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5931\u696d\u8005\u9858\u610f\u9077\u5f99\u3001\u6e1b\u85aa\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u6539\u884c\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u60f3\u56de\u5bb6\u9109\u8015\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u9109\u53ef\u6b78\uff0c\u6709\u826f\u7530\u53ef\u7a2e\u3002\u5c0d\u82d7\u6817\u5927\u6d66\u7684\u6731\u963f\u5b24\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e16\u4ee3\u627f\u50b3\u7684\u8015\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8b00\u751f\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5979\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u6587\u5316\u3001\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u7576\u5979\u6b63\u6176\u5e78\u514d\u65bc\u5de5\u5ee0\u5931\u696d\u7684\u6050\u61fc\u6642\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u537b\u5f37\u8feb\u5fb5\u6536\u5979\u7684\u8fb2\u7530\uff0c\u70ba\u4e0b\u4e00\u6279\u897f\u9032\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u5708\u5730\u8b00\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u5c0d\u5e78\u800c\u6b63\u5e38\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u672c\u9031\u6771\u4eac\u5f71\u5c55\u7684\u738b\u5e73\u6253\u58d3\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u518d\u5ea6\u63d0\u9192\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u50be\u4e2d\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u514d\u65bc\u7d42\u7d71\u6050\u61fc\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u6578\u5e74\u4f86\u53f0\u7063\u53c3\u52a0\u6240\u6709\u570b\u969b\u5f71\u5c55\uff0c\u540d\u7a31\u90fd\u662f\u201c\u53f0\u7063\u201d\uff0c\u5f9e\u6c92\u5967\u904b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6839\u64da\u672c\u9031\u570b\u53f0\u8fa6\u694a\u6bc5\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u7b54\u8986\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f8c\u8981\u907f\u514d\u985e\u4f3c\u540d\u7a31\u6253\u58d3\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u201c\u4e8b\u524d\u6e9d\u901a\u201d\u7684\u65b0\u7fa9\u52d9\uff01\u9019\u5c31\u662fPost-ECFA\u7684\u99ac\u5f0f\u5916\u4ea4\u4f11\u5175\u3002(\u53f0\u7063\u9084\u6709\u4eba\u76fc\u671b\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u9053\u6b49\uff0c\u8a3c\u660e\u662f\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u570b\u9738\u6027\u7684wishful thinking)\u3002\u738b\u5e73\u9084\u5728\u5a92\u9ad4\u524d\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u4e0d\u8b93\u53f0\u7063\u5f71\u7247\u9032\u53e3\u4e2d\u570b\u3002\u81f3\u65bcECFA\u5354\u8b70\u4e0b\u767d\u7d19\u9ed1\u5b57\u7684\u201c\u53f0\u7063\u5f71\u7247\u8b93\u5229\u201d\uff0c\u5957\u53e5\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u7684\u53e3\u982d\u79aa\uff1a\u201c\u53ea\u8981\u9ad8\u8208\u4e00\u665a\u5c31\u597d\u4e86\u201d\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u80fd\u592a\u5929\u771f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53f0\u7063\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5a92\u9ad4\u6642\u5e38\u5831\u5c0e\u7684\u201cJapan\u2019s Lost Decade\u201d(\u65e5\u672c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74)\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5f9e\u500b\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u601d\u7d22\u5c0d\u7b56\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u7406\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u653f\u6cbb\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u9078\u6230\u5b63\u7bc0\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u7684\u9078\u8209\u884c\u70ba\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8207\u5bb6\u5ead\u50b3\u7d71\u3001\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u6d3e\u7cfb\u3001\u540c\u5115\u58d3\u529b(peer pressure)\u3001\u8b70\u54e1\u5730\u65b9\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u8cc4\u9078\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u82e5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8a8d\u771f\u3001\u7406\u6027\u5730\u53bb\u53cd\u7701\u3001\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u677f\u584a\u79fb\u52d5\u7a7a\u9593\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u85cd\u3001\u4e2d\u9593\u3001\u7da0\u7686\u7136\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6c11\u8abf\u4e2d\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u6216\u672a\u8868\u614b\u9078\u6c11(\u7da0\u71df\u9435\u7968\u5340\u7684\u53f0\u5357\u5c31\u9ad8\u9054\u56db\u3001\u4e94\u5341%)\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8a8d\u771f\u3001\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u4e2d(\u800c\u7576\u4ed6\u5011\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6539\u8b8a\u9577\u671f\u6295\u7968\u6a21\u5f0f\u6642\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u6295\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7968\uff0c\u8d70\u4e0d\u51fa\u9580\uff1b\u50b3\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u5247\u932f\u8aa4\u5730\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u52d5\u54e1\u4e0d\u529b)\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u4e09\u5927\u521d\u9078\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u694a\u3001\u8a31\u3001\u9673\u4e09\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u8001\u9ee8\u54e1\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u904e\u4f86\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u6d3e\u7cfb\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u4e2d\u7684\u672a\u6c7a\u9078\u6c11\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u6703\u7d66\u6bd4\u8f03\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u3002\u4f46\u81ea\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u53ca\u516b\u516b\u6c34\u707d\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\u986f\u7136\u5c0d\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u3002\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u4e3b\u8ef8-\u5730\u65b9\u6d3e\u7cfb-\u7b97\u662f\u5eff\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u201d\u5c01\u5efa\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7d93\u7531\u5de5\u696d\u5712\u5340\u7b49\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5927\u8f38\u9001\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u6709\u9055\u516c\u7fa9\uff0c\u5c0d\u5730\u65b9\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u7834\u58de\u66f4\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5efa\u8a2d\u3002\u5730\u65b9\u6d3e\u7cfb\u6838\u5fc3\u4f9d\u820a\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u570d\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u6295\u7968\u6163\u6027\uff0c\u5df2\u6f38\u88ab\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u6240\u4fb5\u8755\uff0c\u6562\u65bc\u6311\u6230\u76f2\u76ee\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u5e74\u9752\u65cf\u7fa3\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u3002\u5e74\u521d\u85cd\u71df\u7968\u5009\u7684\u82b1\u84ee\u88dc\u9078\u7acb\u59d4\uff0c\u5728\u9078\u524d\u5345\u5929\uff0c\u856d\u7f8e\u7434\u624d\u51fa\u9762\u6311\u6230\u524d\u82b1\u84ee\u7e23\u9577\u4e4b\u5b50\uff0c\u88ab\u5730\u65b9\u6d3e\u7cfb\u5927\u99e1\u201c\u7a7a\u964d\u90e8\u968a\u201d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u50c5\u4ee5\u5c11\u6578\u5dee\u8ddd\u843d\u9078\uff0c\u96d6\u6557\u7336\u69ae\u3002\u4e0d\u4f46\u51fa\u4e4e\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u66f4\u70ba\u6311\u6230\u5730\u65b9\u6d3e\u7cfb\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u9078\u6230\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002 \u81f3\u65bc\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u4e2d\u592e\uff0c\u7d93\u4e0d\u8d77\u7406\u6027\u8003\u9a57\u7684\u6700\u5927\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u50f9\u503c\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u50cf\u4efb\u4f55\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u9ee8\u3002\u8fb2\u696d\u66fe\u662f\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u9aa8\u5e79\uff0c\u8523\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u300c\u589e\u7522\u5831\u570b\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u570b\u9632\u300d\u3002\u99ac\u5247\u5f37\u5fb5\u8fb2\u5730\uff0c\u8b00\u5229\u5de5\u5546\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u6700\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u5f9e\u300c\u53cd\u5171\u6297\u4fc4\u300d\u5230\u300c\u6295\u5171\u7d42\u7d71\u300d\u90fd\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u55ae\u65b9\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u5584\u8b8a\u7684\u3001\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u80cc\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u4e3b\u8ef8\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u4e9b\u9078\u6c11\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u5ea7\u77f3\u9298\uff0c\u8ddfMichael Douglas \u8b1b\u7684\u90a3\u53e5\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\uff1a\u201dPower, for lack of a better word, is good.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u82e5\u80fd\u597d\u597d\u7d93\u71df\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u653f\u9ee8\u8f2a\u66ff\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u65bc\uff12\uff10\uff11\uff12\u5be6\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u812b\u9ee8\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078&#8211;\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7? \u54c8\u59c6\u96f7\u7279\uff1f (Faust or Hamlet?) \u6709\u52dd\u6eaa 10\/30\/2010 \u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a ========== Oliver Stone \u7de8\u5c0e\u7684\u201dWall Street\u201d\uff0c\u7968\u623f\u96d6\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b97\u5091\u51fa\u7684\u5f71\u7247\u3002\u62ff\u5230\u91d1\u50cf\u734e\u7684Michael Douglas \u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a\u201dGreed, for lack of a better word, is good.\u201d \u537b\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u4e2d\u4e00\u518d\u88ab\u5a92\u9ad4\u5f15\u7528\uff0c \u9053\u76e1 Main Street (\u4e00\u822c\u6c11\u773e) \u5c0d Wall Street (\u8ca1\u7d93\u9280\u884c\u696d) \u7684\u53cd\u611f\uff0cStone \u5fcd\u4e0d\u4f4f\u518d\u62cd\u7e8c\u96c6\uff0c\u65bc\u4e5d\u6708\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6620\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u5c0d\u65bc\u8ca1\u5bcc\u3001\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a\uff0c\u6df1\u690d\u4eba\u6027\u7684\u5f31\u9ede\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u60b2\u559c\u5287\u5c0d\u89c0\u773e\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002 \u5c0d\u53e4\u5178\u6a02\u7a0d\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u80fd\u54fc\u6b4c\u5287\u5361\u9580\u6216\u8336\u82b1\u5973\u7684\u540d\u66f2\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u5fc5\u719f\u6089\u6b4c\u5287\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7(Faust) \u7684\u66f2\u8abf\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u7d10\u7d04\u6b4c\u5287\u9662 Metropolitan Opera 1883 \u5e74\u5275\u7acb\u958b\u5e55\u7684\u6b4c\u5287\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u540d\u5217\u8a72\u9662\u5341\u5927\u6700\u53d7\u559c\u611b\u7684\u540d\u5287\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4f5c\u66f2\u5bb6\u53e4\u8afe (Charles Gounod)\uff0c\u53d6\u6750\u81ea\u5fb7\u570b\u5927\u6587\u8c6a\u6b4c\u5fb7(Johann W. von Goethe)\u7684\u6232\u5287\u201c\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7\uff02 (Faust\uff0e Der Tragoedie erster Teil)\u3002\u4e3b\u89d2\u6d6e\u58eb\u5fb7\u662f\u5fb7\u570b\u50b3\u8aaa\u4e2d\u7684\u53e4\u4ee3\u5b78\u8005\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u63db\u53d6\u9ad8\u4e0d\u53ef\u53ca\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u865b\u69ae(\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u9ed1\u6697\u6642\u4ee3\uff0f\u4e2d\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u77e5\u8b58\u5c31\u662f\u6b0a\u5a01\u548c\u6b0a\u529b)\uff0c\u8207\u9b54\u9b3cMephistopheles\u8a02\u7d04\uff0c\u51fa\u8ce3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9748\u9b42\u3002 \u53f0\u7063\u5357\u65b9\u653f\u58c7\u7248\u7684power greed \u6232\u5287\uff0c\u6bd4\u201cWall Street\u201d \u7684\u7e8c\u96c6\u66f4\u65e9\u4e0a\u6f14\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u51d6\u5099\u5357\u3001\u9ad8\u5169\u76f4\u8f44\u5e02\u521d\u9078\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6642\uff0c\u5167\u90e8\u722d\u57f7\u5df2\u9b27\u5230\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0a\u3002\u5f8c\u7d93\u5357\u90e8\u672c\u571f\u793e\u5718\u51fa\u9762\u5354\u8abf\uff0c\u5169\u90fd\u6240\u6709\u521d\u9078\u4eba\u90fd\u7c3d\u4e86\u9075\u5f9e\u9ee8\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3001\u9858\u8ced\u670d\u8f38\u7684\u627f\u8afe\u66f8\uff0c\u201c\u672a\u52dd\u8005\u61c9\u7121\u689d\u4ef6\u5354\u52a9\u52dd\u8005\u7af6\u9078\u201d\u3002\u521d\u9078\u65e5\u4e5f\u56e0\u5354\u8abf\u800c\u5ef6\u671f\u3002\u4e94\u6708\u521d\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u51fa\u7210\u6642\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u53ca\u7279\u7d04\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u8a00\u7336\u5728\u8033\uff0c\u201c\u672a\u52dd\u201d\u7684\u694a\u79cb\u8208\u53ca\u8a31\u6dfb\u8ca1\u9663\u71df\uff0c\u7adf\u653e\u8a00\u5c07\u9055\u7d00\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078\u3002\u5e7e\u7d93\u9ee8\u5167\u5916\u9ad8\u5c64\u3001\u5927\u8001\u5354\u8abf\uff0c\u5169\u71df\u614b\u5ea6\u5f37\u786c\u4e0d\u8b93\u3002 \u6c11\u9032\u9ee82008\u6158\u6557\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e7e\u6b21\u8271\u82e6\u7684\u88dc\u9078\uff0c\u672a\u898b\u9019\u7a2e\u812b\u9ee8\u80cc\u4fe1\u7af6\u9078\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002 \u800c\u4eca\u60c5\u52e2\u9010\u6f38\u8f49\u6eab\uff0c\u7adf\u5728\u7da0\u71df\u9435\u7968\u5340\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8b93\u4e00\u822c\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7cfb\u5916\u7684\u9078\u6c11\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u6b0a\u529b\u8caa\u5a6a\u6240\u9a45\u4f7f\uff1f \u4e94\u90fd\u7af6\u9078\u4eba\u4e5d\u6708\u767b\u8a18\u622a\u6b62\u6642\uff0c\u8a31\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u8af8\u7da0\u71df\u7121\u9650\u7126\u616e\u5f8c\uff0c\u7e3d\u7b97\u662f\u660e\u667a\u7684\u524e\u8eca\u3002 \u694a\u5247\u5148\u5728\u516b\u6708\u4e2d\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u4f48\u812b\u9ee8\u53c3\u9078\u3002\u800c\u4ed6\u5c0dECFA\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u53ca\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u7b49\uff0c\u77ac\u606f\u842c\u8b8a\uff0c\u6628\u662f\u4eca\u975e\uff0c\u9023\u9577\u671f\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u5357\u90e8\u672c\u571f\u793e\u5718\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u3002 &nbsp; \u7f8e\u5f0f\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078 =========== \u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd1\u4ee3\u6bd4\u8f03\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5169\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a (1) Theodore Roosevelt \u7e3d\u7d71(1912) &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;- \u7f85\u65af\u798f\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u51fa\u8eab\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c1901\uff0d1909\u3002 (\u8a3b\uff1a\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u6642\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71Franklin Roosevelt\uff0c1933\uff0d1945\uff0c\u662f\u9060\u89aa\uff0d5th cousin\uff0c\u5c6c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u3002) \u56e0\u4ed6\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u4fc2\u4ee5\u526f\u7e3d\u7d71\u8eab\u4efd\u7e7c\u627f\u88ab\u6697\u6bba\u7684President McKinley\uff0c\u539f\u53ef\u65bc1908\u518d\u53c3\u9078\uff0c\u4e26\u6975\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u9ad8\u4eba\u6c23\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4ed6\u537b\u6307\u5b9aWilliam Taft\u70ba\u4ed6Progressive Movement\u7684\u7e7c\u627f\u4eba\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7af6\u9078\u4e26\u7e7c\u4efb\u3002\u56db\u5e74\u5f8cRoosevelt\u4e0d\u6eff\u610f Taft\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6771\u5c71\u518d\u8d77\u3002\u57281912\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5167\u521d\u9078\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e2d\u637212\u5ddePreferential Primaries\u4e2d\u76849\u5dde\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u5eff\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u521d\u9078\u5236\u5ea6\u4ecd\u5728\u6539\u9032\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u5dde\u7684\u9ee8\u4e2d\u592e\u6bd4\u57fa\u5c64\u9078\u6c11\u66f4\u80fd\u5de6\u53f3\u9078\u5c40\u3002\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7684\u5171\u548c\u9ee8convention \u958b\u59cb\u6642\uff0cTaft \u7576\u6b0a\u6d3e\u986f\u4f54\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u7121\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u52aa\u529b\u5169\u9031\u5f8c\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u52dd\u5229\uff0c\u5c31\u5728convention\u7968\u6c7a\u524d\uff0c\u7387\u9818\u652f\u6301\u8005\u96e2\u958bconvention\uff0c \u5ba3\u4f48\u5c07\u53e6\u7d44\u65b0\u9ee8\uff0e \u7f85\u65af\u798f\u4ee3\u8868\u65b0\u9ee8Progressive Party\u53d6\u5f9727%\u9078\u7968\uff0c \u7a0d\u591a\u65bcTaft \u768423%\uff0c \u4f46\u8f38\u7d66\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8Woodrow Wilson \u768442%\u3002 (\u8a3b\uff1a\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u4e5f\u906d\u523a\u6bba\u4e2d\u5f48\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e09\u9031\u56e0\u50b7\u7121\u6cd5\u65c5\u884c\u7af6\u9078\u3002) (2) Joseph Lieberman \u53c3\u8b70\u54e1(2006) &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211; Lieberman\u662f\u5eb7\u5dde(Connecticut)\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1(1988-2006)\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u9ee8\u4e2d\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u6703\u652f\u6301\u5e03\u5e0c\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u653f\u7b56\u30022006 \u7af6\u9078\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u9ee8\u5167\u521d\u9078\u958b\u59cb\u6642\uff0c\u6c11\u8abf\u9818\u514846%\uff0e\u6311\u6230\u8005Ned Lamont\u6975\u529b\u653b\u64ca\u4ed6\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fe0\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u6273\u5e73\uff0e\u4f46Lieberman \u5805\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u8def\u7dda\uff0c\u4e26\u5ba3\u4f48\u82e5\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u4e0d\u5728\u521d\u9078\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\uff0c\u4ecd\u5c07\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078\u3002\u722d\u57f7\u6700\u53b2\u5bb3\u6642\uff0cLieberman\u6307\u63a7Lamont\u9663\u71df\u7834\u58de\u4ed6\u7af6\u9078\u7e3d\u90e8\u96fb\u8166\u7cfb\u7d71(\u4e00\u5ea6\u7576\u6a5f)\uff0c\u544a\u4e0a\u5eb7\u5dde\u53ca\u806f\u90a6\u6aa2\u67e5\u7f72\uff0c\u51fa\u9762\u8abf\u67e5\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4ee548.21%\u8f38\u7d66Lamont 51.79%\u3002\u7576\u665a\u843d\u9078\u6f14\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u627f\u8a8d\u6557\u9078\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u7167\u521d\u9078\u4e2d\u7684\u5ba3\u544a\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e09\u9ee8\u53c3\u52a0\u666e\u9078(\u8a3b\uff1b\u4ed6\u4e26\u4e0d\u4ee5\u201c\u5c0d\u65b9\u7af6\u9078\u5927\u5c0f\u5967\u6b65\u201d\u70ba\u85c9\u53e3) \u7d50\u679c\u4ed6\u5728\u666e\u9078\u4e2d\u6a6b\u6383\u6240\u6709\u9078\u5340(counties)\uff0c\u4ee549.7%\u64ca\u6557Lamont\u53ca\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u5169\u9ee8\u5169\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e00\u6210\u4e00\u6557\uff0c\u76f8\u5dee\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u4e4b\u4e45\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u9ad8\u968e\u5c64\u9078\u8209\uff0c\u6d89\u4eba\u6d89\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f55\u6b62\u5343\u842c\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u90fd\u4e0d\u5c51\u6311\u53d6\u722d\u8b70\u6027\u201c\u5967\u6b69\u201d(\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u8a34\u4e4b\u65bc\u9078\u6c11\u6216\u53f8\u6cd5\u4ef2\u88c1\u6a5f\u69cb)\u4f5c\u70ba\u812b\u9ee8\u518d\u9078\u9019\u7a2e\u91cd\u5927\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u85c9\u53e3\u3002\u5169\u4eba\u5c0d\u8131\u9ee8\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u6642\u6a5f\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u4f7f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u6642\u523b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u88ab\u9a19\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u521d\u9078\u524d\u5f8c\uff0c\u5805\u6301\u540c\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u50cf\u694a\u79cb\u8208\u7684\u5348\u591c\u5922\u8ff4\uff0c\u6628\u662f\u4eca\u975e\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u5169\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e09\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u9078\u8209\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u842c\uff0c\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078\u4e26\u975e\u7d55\u7121\u50c5\u6709\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u6703\u767c\u751f\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u5eff\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5148\u9032\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9ad8\u968e\u5c64\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\uff0c\u82e5\u6709\u4eba\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9055\u53cd\u65e2\u5b9a\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u7b26\u4e00\u822c\u9078\u6c11\u8aa0\u4fe1\u6b63\u7576\u7684\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u96e3\u9003\u8caa\u6b0a\u6295\u6a5f\u8005\u518d\u6557\u7684\u547d\u904b\u3002 &nbsp; \u53f0\u7063\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u60b2\u5287 =============\u00a0\u00a0 \u8a31\u6dfb\u8ca1\u66fe\u57281995\u812b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u6b21\u521d\u9078\u5f8c\u7684\u59ff\u614b\uff0c\u9084\u4e0d\u50cf\u694a\u79cb\u8208\u90a3\u6a23\u4ee4\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u9707\u9a5a\u3002 \u8aa0\u5982\u8a69\u4eba\u674e\u654f\u52c7\u5728\u300c\u6b0a\u529b\u56f0\u5883\u300d(\u81ea\u7531\u6642\u58318\u67087\u65e5)\u4e2d\u6240\u5beb\uff1a\u300c \u694a\u79cb\u8208\u2026.\u5f9e\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u4ee3\u5c31\u5f9e\u5b78\u904b\u3001\u53c3\u8207\u53cd\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u793e\u904b\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u8072\u8b7d\u8a55\u50f9\u9ad8\u2026..\u8d70\u5411\u80cc\u53cd\u4e4b\u8def\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc?\u300d \u4ed6\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u662f\u300c\u53ea\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u80a1\u6028\u6c23\u2026.\u904e\u5ea6\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u80af\u5b9a\u8b8a\u6210\u81ea\u6211\u5426\u5b9a\u3002\u300d 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(\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u58c7\uff0c\u5dde\u9577\u8f49\u6230\u570b\u6703\uff0c\u751a\u70ba\u5e73\u5e38\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u897f\u7dad\u5409\u5c3c\u4e9e\u5dde\u9577 Joe Manchin\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u4f8b\u3002 \u53e6\u57282007\uff0c\u7dad\u5409\u5c3c\u4e9e\u5dde\u66f4\u6709\u73fe\/\u524d\u5169\u5dde\u9577\uff0c\u722d\u6230\u570b\u6703\u4e00\u5e2d)\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u5275\u9020\u4ed6\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u653f\u8e5f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u52a0\u6a5f\u904b\uff0c\u5c1a\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u76ee\u524d\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u99ac\u4e0a\u4fdd\u9001\u4ed6\u66f4\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c64\u6a13\uff0e\u4e0d\u8010\u6c88\u6f5b\u518d\u4fee\uff0c\u53c8\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u81ea\u8ca0\u60c5\u7d50\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e7e\u7d93\u7336\u8c6b\u5f8c\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7d42\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f3\u53cc\u91cd\u653f\u6cbb\u60b2\u5287\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ed6\u5df2\u7d93\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\u6578\u842c\u9577\u671f\u5fe0\u8aa0\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff1b\u53e6\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u8d85\u904e90%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c07\u65bc\u5e74\u5e95\u65b7\u9001\u52aa\u529b\u596e\u9b25\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u53ef\u8cb4\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u6daf\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u52c9\u5f37\u518d\u64e0\u56de\u7acb\u59d4\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5931\u53bb\u8a31\u591a\u5fe0\u8aa0\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u5c0a\u656c\u3002 &nbsp; \u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u7684\u96b1\u6182 ===========\u00a0\u00a0 \u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8b80\u8005\u6703\u554f\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u6b78\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u6309\u4e00\u822c\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u5206\u6790? \u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u60f3\u6aa2\u9a57\u4e00\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\uff1a\u694a\u79cb\u8208\u500b\u6848\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u5b64\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6(\u201cisolated\u201d case)\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u8986\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f9e\u7279\u5225\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u6aa2\u9a57\u3002\u5426\u5247\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u7684\u518d\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u96b1\u85cf\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u3002 \u53bb\u5e74\u56db\u6708\uff0c\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u63d0\u540d\u674e\u4fca\u6bc5\u51fa\u9078\u53f0\u5357\u7e23\u9577\u3002\u6c11\u8abf\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u9673\u5510\u5c71\u4e0d\u670d\uff0c\u57f7\u610f\u7af6\u9078\u5230\u5e95\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\u89e3\u5957\u7684\uff0c\u7adf\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u570b\u6703\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u516d\u6708\u8b70\u6c7a\u53f0\u5357\u7e23\u3001\u5e02\u5408\u4f75\u70ba\u5927\u53f0\u5357\u76f4\u8f44\u5e02\uff0c\u5408\u9078\u4e00\u5e02\u9577\u3002\u9673\u5510\u5c71\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u6b64\u6536\u5834\u3002\u5408\u4f75\u5f8c\u7684\u5927\u53f0\u5357\u5e02\uff0c\u537b\u518d\u5192\u51fa\u8a31\u6dfb\u8ca1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\uff0c\u5357\u3001\u9ad8\u5169\u5730\u76f8\u7e7c\u767c\u751f\u4e09\u8d77\u521d\u9078\u5236\u5ea6\u56b4\u91cd\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u5982\u4ee5\u9019\u7a2e\u983b\u7387\u548c\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7e7c\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u53ea\u80fd\u9000\u5316\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u53f0\u806f\u3002 &nbsp; \u5c55\u671b\u672a\u4f86 \uff1d\uff1d\uff1d\uff1d \u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u7684\u518d\u8d77\u4ee5\u53ca\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u8208\u8870\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u52302012\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u8b8a?\u5f88\u591a\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8457\u773c\u65bc\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u65b0\u9886\u5c0e\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8207\u7279\u8cea\u3001\u53ca\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c38\u4e0d\u9000\u5931\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\u610f\u5716\u6d88\u9577\uff1b\u66f4\u591a\u8a55\u8ad6\u5f15\u7528\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7da0\u71df\u7684\u6c11\u8abf(\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u3001\u7e23\u5e02\u57f7\u653f\u3001\u7d71\u7368\u610f\u5411\u7b49)\u3002\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7e23\u5e02\u57f7\u653f\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u5c31\u5f88\u721b\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5929\u4e0b\u96dc\u8a8c\u6c11\u8abf\uff0c\u624d\u7fa3\u540a\u8eca\u5c3e?\u7b46\u8005\u5c07\u8a66\u5f9e\u66f4\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5c64\u6b21\uff0c\u4f86\u63a2\u8a0e\u53f0\u7063\u8fd1\u5169\u5e74\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff1a (1) \u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387 \u53ca Anti-Incumbent Sentiment &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;- \u57282008 \u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u524d\uff0c\u5c31\u5148\u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u5f8c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u5c0d\u7576\u6b0a\u8005(\u6307\u57f7\u653f\u8005\u6216\u8b70\u6703\u591a\u6578\u9ee8)\u9023\u4efb\u300d (Anti-Incumbent Voting Pattern) \u7684\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002\u9996\u5169\u6b21\u767c\u751f\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5148\u9032\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u66f4\u6ce2\u53ca\u65e5\u6f38\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u3002\u4f7f\u53f0\u7063\u8ddf\u9019\u4e16\u754c\u8da8\u52e2\u63a5\u8ecc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5f9e\u6b50\u6d32\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u4e00\u76f4\u5230\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e00\u689d\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff1a\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u30021980\uff0d2000\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc1%\uff0d3%\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c \u8fd1\u5e74\u5247\u500d\u589e\u81f33.9%\uff0d6%\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u5347\u964d\u6c88\u6d6e\uff0c\u6cd5\u5b9a\u8ca7\u6236\u6578\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c38\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u56de3%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u201c\u53f0\u7063\u63a5\u55ae\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u751f\u7522\u201d\u3001\u201c\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5927\u201d\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5df2\u6210\u5bb6\u55a9\u6236\u66c9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e2d\u7522\u3001\u7121\u7522\u968e\u5c64\uff0c\u8ddf\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u611f\u89ba\u5230\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u514d\u65bc\u201c\u5931\u696d\u3001\u65b0\u8ca7\u3001\u9577\u8ca7\u3001\u6c38\u8ca7\u201d\u7684\u6050\u61fc\u3002(\u4eca\u5e742\u670821\u65e5\u7ebd\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u201c\u65b0\u8ca7\u7cfb\u5217\u201d\u6709\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u201cThe New Poor\uff1aMillions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs\u201d\u3002\u300e\u65b0\u8ca7\u968e\u5c64\uff1a\u6578\u767e\u842c\u5931\u696d\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u6578\u5e74\u5167\u5f88\u96e3\u518d\u627e\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\u300f\u3002\u8a72\u6587\u5728\u6b21\u65e5\u8df3\u5c45\u6700\u591a\u50b3\u95b1\u201cmost emailed\u201d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d)\uff0e \u516b\u516b\u6c34\u707d\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u8b8a\u6210\u5f37\u529b\u7684\u5c0e\u706b\u7dda\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u76f8\u7576\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u8cea\u7591\u3001\u53cd\u7701\u50b3\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u884c\u70ba\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u8d95\u4e0a\u7f8e\u3001\u97d3\u3001\u65e5\u7684anti-incumbent \u65b0\u5f62\u614b\u30022009\u5e74\u521d\uff0c7\u540d\u7acb\u59d4\u88dc\u9078\uff0c\u5176\u7e3d\u6295\u7968\u6578\u3001\u5730\u5340\u53ca\u85cd\u7da0\u5206\u4f48\u3001\u65cf\u7fa3\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5f37\u529b\u9a57\u8a3c\u3002 &nbsp; (2) \u570b\u5bb6\u4e3b\u6b0a\u8150\u8755\u7684\u6050\u61fc &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211; 2005 \u9023\u3001\u5b8b\u806f\u5171\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u610f\uff0e\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u201c\u5931\u610f\u201d\u5c07\u9818\u6216\u653f\u5ba2\uff0c\u5f15\u6575\u71df\u5165\u95dc\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7576\u958b\u8def\u5148\u92d2\uff0c\u5f80\u4f8b\u4e0d\u52dd\u679a\u8209\uff0e\u4ed6\u5011\u986f\u7136\u7121\u80fd\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u4e3b\u6b0a\u6216\u9818\u571f\u9020\u6210\u540c\u7b49\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0e 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Maslow\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u6839\u672c\u8981\u4ef6(\u5982\u6c34\u3001\u7a7a\u6c23\u3001\u98df\u7269\u3001\u7761\u7720)\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u9700\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u8ca1\u7522\u3001\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u3001\u8cc7\u6e90\u7b49\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\u602a\u4e0d\u5f97\u6709\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u611f\u5230\uff0c\u5148\u6c11\u8f9b\u82e6\u958b\u62d3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u5df2\u975e\u5b89\u5c45\u4e4b\u90f7\u3002\u84cb\u6d1b\u666e(Gallup poll)\u65bc\u516b\u6708\u767c\u8868\u5168\u7403148\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u610f\u5411\u6c11\u8abf\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u7684\u6de8\u79fb\u51fa\u610f\u5411\u6307\u6578(\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u6307\u6578)\u9ad8\u5c45\u7b2c96\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u9060\u843d\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6bd4Iraq\u3001Paraguay\u3001Chad\u3001Ecuador\u3001Togo\u3001Mali 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